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Less Than Zero: The Case for a Falling Price Level in a Growing Economy (Hobart Papers)

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One of main features of the 'counter-revolution' in economics which has resulted in the revival of classical liberal ideas has been a change in views about government's ability to control the economy. 'Fiscal fine tuning' is virtually discredited and monetary policy is no longer seen as a means of stimulating employment. Not just theory, but experience in many countries demonstrates that unemployment cannot for long be held below its 'natural' rate by monetary expansion. The proper role of monetary -authorities is now generally regarded as keeping the general price level under control.

As economists' views have changed and attention has switched from employment-promotion to price stability, so inflation has been checked in many countries to the extent that zero inflation now appears an achievable goal. But is a stable price level the ideal? That is the fundamental question which

Professor George Selgin asks in Hobart Paper 132. Professor Selgin argues instead for a monetary policy which would allow prices to vary with movements in productivity (either labour or total factor productivity). Rather than attempting to keep the general price level constant, a 'productivity norm' policy would permit that level to change to reflect variations in unit costs of production. The consequence, as Selgin points out, would in recent times have been year-onyear price declines rather than the inflation which has been experienced. In the 30 years after the Second World War, for example, United States consumer prices would have halved instead of almost tripling.
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