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Preparing for the Worst: Incorporating Downside Risk in Stock Market Investments (Wiley Series in Probability and Statistics)

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This book provides a detailed accounting of how downside risk can enter a
portfolio, and what can be done to identify and prepare for the downside.We
take the view that downside risk can be incorporated into current methods of
stock valuation and portfolio management.Therefore we introduce commonly
used theories in order to show how the status quo often misses the downside,
and where to include it.

The importance of downside risk is evident to any investor in the market.
No one complains about unexpected gains, while unexpected losses are
painful.Traditional theories of risk measurements treat volatility on either side
equally. To include downside risk, we divide the discussion into three parts.
Part 1 covers the current theories of risk measurement and management, and
includes Chapters 1, 2, and 3. Part 2 presents the violations of this theory and
the need to include the downside, covered in Chapters 4, 5, 6, and 7. Part 3
covers the quantitative and programming techniques to make risk measurement
more precise in Chapters 8 and 9. The discussions in these two chapters
are not for the casual reader but for those who perform the calculations and
are curious about the pitfalls to avoid. Chapter 10 concludes with a summarized
treatment of downside risk.

Our aim in this book will have succeeded if the reader takes a second look
when investing and asks, “Have I considered the downside?”
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