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Prospective Evaluation of Applied Energy Research and Development at DOE (Phase Two)

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In recent years, federal oversight of public expenditures has sought to integrate performance and budgeting. Notably, the Government Performance and Results Act (GPRA) was passed in 1993 “in response to questions about the value and effectiveness of federal programs” (GAO, 1997, p. 11). GPRA and other mandates have led agencies to develop indicators of program performance and program outcomes. The development of indicators has been watched with keen interest by Congress, which asked the National Research Council (NRC) for a series of reports using quantitative indicators to evaluate the effectiveness of applied energy R&D. The first such report took a retrospective view of the first 23 years of R&D programs sponsored by the Department of Energy (DOE) on fossil energy and energy efficiency. That report found that DOE-sponsored research had netted large commercial successes—such as advanced refrigerator compressors, electronic lighting ballasts, and emission control technology for flue gas desulfurization (NRC, 2001). Other programs, however, were judged to have been costly failures in which large R&D expenditures did not result in a commercial energy technology (NRC, 2001). A followup NRC committee was assigned the task of adapting the retrospective methodology to the assessment of the future payoff of continuing programs (NRC, 2005a). The present report continues the NRC’s investigation of R&D outcome indicators and applies the benefits evaluation methodology to six DOE R&D activities. The report further defines indicators for environmental and security benefits and refines the evaluation process based on the experience with the case studies.
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