This book is motivated by the following convictions:
1) Quantitative risk assessment (QRA) can be a powerful discipline for improving risk management decisions and policies.
2) Poorly conducted QRAs can produce results and recommendations that are worse than useless.
3) Sound risk assessment methods provide the benefits of QRA modeling – being able to predict and compare the probable consequences of alternative actions, interventions, or policies and being able to identify those that make preferred consequences more probable – while avoiding the pitfalls.
This book develops and illustrates QRA methods for complex and uncertain biological, engineering, and social systems. These systems have behaviors that are too complex or uncertain to be modeled accurately in detail with high confidence. Practical applications include assessing and managing risks from chemical carcinogens, antibiotic resistance, mad cow disease, terrorist attacks, and accidental or deliberate failures in telecommunications network infrastructure.
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